GVSU expert: GOP battle now a numbers game

The ongoing battle for the Republican nomination for the presidential election in November is now a numbers game between the candidates, said Grand Valley State University political science professor Erika King.

Although four well-known candidates are still in the race for the Republican nomination, King says at this point it’s simply a matter of whether or not Mitt Romney can gather enough delegates to hit the 1,144 mark that is required to gain the nomination, or if his main opponent, Rick Santorum, can successfully block him until the Republican Convention.

“I think what we need to look at is the accumulation of delegates by Romney,” King said. “Is he able to continue to pile up those delegates? Does it look like by June he’ll be able to pick up the 1,144 delegates? At this point, can he continue to feed that bottom line number through proportional allocation that most states are using? It boils down to if the other candidates can block him or not.”

King said part of Romney’s likely strategy is to enter every primary and caucus contest available and rely on proportional allocation of delegates to continue to increase his margin. Romney currently has roughly twice the delegates of his next nearest rival.

While the GOP nomination process dominates the headlines, King added that research is already being done by both major parties about who is voting what way in certain geographic areas. Michigan is again expected to be a big swing state, especially because the Republican voting base was nearly split down the middle during the primary in February.

There have also been calls for Newt Gingrich to bow out of the race after losing two key southern primaries in Alabama and Mississippi this week, and to generally unite the party behind an eventual delegate. Some Republican strategists have been quoted as saying they fear the ongoing battle is doing more harm than good to the party.

“Is this current Republican campaign one where the candidates are doing more damage to each other and the Republican brand more than the Democrats did in 2008? It’s unknown,” King said.

Economic factors will certainly play a role, King said. While unemployment rates and gas prices are important, they’re certainly not the only factors. King says it’s up to the campaigns on both sides to figure out how to convince the voting public about how the economy is doing.

“It’s how the campaigns and the candidates can define what is economic progress and what is economic misery,” King said. “It depends how well they can frame a narrative to frame that particular issue.”