First and second place in the influential GOP Iowa caucus was separated by just eight votes — and a Grand Valley State University professor and expert in elections said no real front-runner emerged after the first measured political contest of the 2012 election season.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum nearly tied, each with about 25 percent of the total votes cast. Romney edged out Santorum by a few votes when the ballots were counted. Erika King, elections expert and political science professor at Grand Valley, said it wasn’t a big win for Romney despite getting the most votes.
“I don’t think there was one front-runner that came out and I think that’s the biggest news for me,” King said. “Romney can’t really, out of Iowa, claim the mantle of front-runner, and now Santorum can use the phrase everyone likes and say that he has momentum moving forward.”
King said the Iowa caucuses are an opportunity for candidates to strut their stuff, but indicated that the results don’t really carry a lot of significance. She said they are more important to candidates who will use the results to encourage supporters and fundraisers to continue to work on their behalf.
“The actual number of voters who sit for several hours in a caucus with other people from the party before voting doesn’t mean very much,” King said, “but because it’s the first case in which actual voters are doing something, it gets lots of media attention. Iowa is a very symbolic starting point. It becomes important because of how other people in and outside of the political system react.”
But the results can also have very real consequences, as evidenced by candidate Michele Bachmann dropping out of the race after a poor showing.
“This is the beginning of the winnowing process, where candidates who really do quite poorly do begin to reassess and drop out, and now we’ve seen the first person do so,” King said. “That makes a difference because there’s one less person in the race, so now we have to ask where her supporters in the upcoming states will turn their support.”
Finances also play a large part in determining how long a candidate will stay in the race, King said.
Michigan could end up playing an important role in the process of picking a Republican candidate, King said, but that importance is contingent on what happens in the weeks before Michigan’s primary. King said that if the field of challengers is still largely open, Michigan will play a more important role.
“As we know historically, the people who have won the Iowa caucuses have very frequently not gotten their party’s nomination,” King said, “so everybody knows this is not a do-or-die situation.”
The win is certainly an advantage for Romney moving forward, King said, but many different challenges and other primary contests stand between all of the candidates and a nomination to run against President Barack Obama.
Downloadable Audio Bites
Results of Iowa caucus generate media attention that can impact race for candidates (audio)
Candidates can take comfort in knowing results in Iowa aren't do-or-die (audio)
