Michigan could be key in November election

With the presidential race all but formally narrowed down to a two-candidate contest, Michigan could play a pivotal role come Election Day in November.

Grand Valley State University professor of political science Erika King said that unless one candidate emerges with a significant lead over the next couple of months, Michigan’s role as a battleground state will mean a lot of campaigning and spending on ads.

“If Michigan begins to shift to one candidate or the other and it looks like a really decisive trend, then Michigan will not be the beneficiary of all the campaigning and the advertising dollars,” King said. “But if Michigan remains a toss-up, then the candidates will be deploying all of their massive forces into this as a major swing state, so it really depends what happens over the next few months. My best guess is that Michigan will remain a battleground state.”

Numbers from recent polls support King’s theory, indicating the race is anyone’s game. An EPIC-MRA poll from the first week of June indicated that one percentage point was all that separated Obama and Romney, a statistical dead heat. 

King said strategy will also play a big part, as it does in any campaign, and it’s been going on for months.

“They’re looking at how to slice and dice the electorate,” she said. “They’re looking at where your possible votes are, what areas you should just probably ignore because you’re not going to get many votes, who can be persuaded, who can’t. All of these calculations are being done right now and will continue through the fall.”

King also pointed out that while the candidate messages were key to the election, she said public gaffes made by supporters of either candidate are more an exercise in media scrutiny than a real factor in the election. Another media focal point is potential picks for vice president on Mitt Romney’s side of the contest.

King said Romney is likely to pick a candidate who will support his message, and not steal the spotlight. 

“We can each be our own pundit, but the reality is we just don’t know what kind of calculations are being made about who the right candidate would be,” King said. “Romney is thoughtful and cautious, I don’t think he’s going to do a Sarah Palin kind of choice, nothing unexpected. I think he’ll go for somebody who will be a solid backup, who can have all the qualifications and know-how to fill the position.”