Employment growth in 2014 a positive surprise

Employment results in the West Michigan area for 2014 were much higher than anticipated, said Paul Isely, professor of economics and associate dean in the Seidman College of Business. 

Isely revealed the findings of his benchmark survey of the regional economy at the Colliers Annual Economic and Real Estate Forecast, January 16 at DeVos Place. The survey of the greater Grand Rapids economy (Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon, and Allegan counties) was conducted in November and December 2014.

Isely said employment for the Grand Rapids metro area was up 3.8 percent in 2014, well above the 3.1 percent expectation, which was a positive surprise. He said employment is expected to grow by 2.8-3.2 percent in 2015.

“More than three quarters of respondents (78 percent) expect to hire in 2015, which is up from 69 percent last year,” said Isely. “Of those persons being hired, about 80 percent are expected to be permanent workers. This suggests hiring in West Michigan will continue at a rate faster than the country as a whole.”

Isely said organizations expect a 75 percent business confidence level for 2015, which is the highest reading since December 1999. “This is significant because when business leaders are confident, they hire and invest more,” said Isely. “There has been a steady increase in business confidence since the low seen in 2008, and the West Michigan business leaders surveyed see this improvement continuing during 2015. West Michigan confidence is now back to levels seen during the 1990s. The regional economy is expected to continue to grow in 2015, but the rate of this increase is also expected to slow down.”

Isely also said all of the major real estate markets in West Michigan are back above their 2000 prices. He also noted that Michigan’s economy was led out of the recession of 2007-2009 by automotive manufacturing and this growth is now slowing and employment growth is shifting to services.

OVERALL FINDINGS FOR 2015:
• Employment expected to grow by 2.8-3.2%
• Sales expected to increase by 2.5-2.9%
• Export growth forecasted to be weaker than last year, with expected growth between 6.7-7.7%
• All indicators signal the 2015 economy continuing to grow as last year

For more information, contact Paul Isely at (616) 331-7418.