Current business trends: Slightly positive

The West Michigan economy is "flat, but meekly positive," according to a report by a Grand Valley State University economist. 

Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in the Seidman College of Business, surveyed local business leaders and his findings are based on data collected during the last two weeks of January. 

Listen to a brief podcast of Brian talking about the local economy here.

The employment index remained positive at +8, down slightly from +12. The survey's index of business improvement (new orders) edged back to +4, up from -1. The production index recovered more ground, rising to +12 from -4, while the index of purchases remained negative at -1, but improved from December's -4. 

See the full report here.

"Given the slower pace of the West Michigan economy, it is not surprising to see that the momentum for most of our industrial groups has turned widely mixed," said Long. "This is clearly the case with our industrial distributors, the office furniture manufacturers, capital equipment firms and aerospace contractors."

Long said the 2015 record automobile sales are projected to go even higher in 2016. "The January auto sales report did come in flat," Long said. "The retail auto market remains oversaturated and bolstered by lower credit requirement, massive incentives and low gasoline prices."

Long's said the employment picture remains very positive for West Michigan. The December unemployment rate for Kent County eased to a 15-year low of 2.7 percent, down from 3.6 percent a year ago, and a fraction of the 12.6 percent rate reported in July of 2009 at the peak of the Great Recession. In Kalamazoo County, the December unemployment rate fell to 3.2 percent, down a full percentage point over the past calendar year.

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as "same," "up" or "down." An expanded version of this report can be found in the dropbox link provided above under media note.

For more information, contact Brian Long at (269) 323-2359.