GVSU economist: Slow growth continues, optimism retreats

West Michigan's recovery from the Great Recession began 10 years ago this month and it continues at the same slow pace since 2009, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University's Seidman College of Business.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of March. See the full report here.

The survey's index of business improvement (new orders) remained virtually unchanged at +17, up from +16. The production index retreated to +5 from +16. The index of purchases waned to +4 from +16, and the employment index declined slightly to +15 from +17.

Business confidence rebounded in February after posting near-record lows in January, Long said, but March saw that optimism fade. 

"Short-term confidence for March slipped for a number of reasons — no resolution to the Chinese trade war, Brexit, the softening world economy and retreating monthly auto sales," said Long.

The long-term business outlook (perception for the next three-to-five years), remained steady at +28, up marginally from February's +27. 

Long added that auto sales are continuing to fall as predicted, but West Michigan auto parts producers are not feeling pinched. "Just as it has been for many months, the decline in auto sales has been very orderly, so far," he said.

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as "same," "up" or "down."

For more information, contact Brian Long at (269) 323-2359.