GVSU economics expert: Recession recovery continues

The economic recovery in West Michigan that began in July is still on track, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University's Seidman College of Business.

Long said while the local economy recovery continues, it is at a slower pace than hoped.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of September.

The survey's index of business improvement (new orders) came in at +18, virtually unchanged from last month's rate of +19. The production index increased to +20, a modest improvement from +13. The index of purchases edged up to +14, from +10, and the employment index remained positive at +9, from +13.

Long said the automotive industry is edging back to normal a little more quickly than originally anticipated, while layoffs have been announced by the office furniture industry.

"Many future office furniture customers are rethinking the concept of the traditional office," said Long. "Office designers and engineers are feverishly working on new office designs that incorporate more separation and social distancing for office workers who must work in a traditional office and cannot work from home." 

Long said designers and engineers at some local firms are working on lower-cost configurations for the home office market to compete with out-of-state firms. 

Long also said he expects the local economy to continue to slowly recover.

"It seems likely that enough people are following the simple rules of wearing masks, social distancing and washing hands, that another March-style shut-down is unlikely," said Long.

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as "same," "up" or "down."

For more information, contact Brian Long at (269) 870-0428.