GVSU expert: Local economy rebounded, but the mood is more cautious

The West Michigan industrial economy has flipped back to positive, but manufacturers are much more cautious, said Brian G. Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University's Seidman College of Business.

Long surveyed local business leaders and his findings below are based on data collected during the last two weeks of February. Full report.

The survey's index of business improvement (new orders) rebounded to +7 from -9. The production index edged up to +2 from -2. The index of purchases jumped to +9 from -6, and the employment rose to +9 from -7.

Long said while February was a good month for the local economy, the spread of coronavirus has changed everything.

"With signs the economy has already been slowing, the coronavirus will accelerate the pace of the decline," said Long. "Will it weigh down the economy enough to drag us into a recession? We can no longer ignore the possibility. Slower growth is inevitable for the next year or so."

Long said comments from local manufacturers show many are feeling very cautious about the next several months. "We haven't had this many negative comments in the last 10 years," he said. "Their major concern is disruptions in the supply chain."

The Institute for Supply Management survey is a monthly survey of business conditions that includes 45 purchasing managers in the greater Grand Rapids area and 25 in Kalamazoo. The respondents are from the region's major industrial manufacturers, distributors and industrial service organizations. It is patterned after a nationwide survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Each month, the respondents are asked to rate eight factors as "same," "up" or "down."

For more information, contact Brian Long at (269) 870-0428.