The strongest predictor of who will get COVID-19 vaccine? How vulnerable someone feels about contracting the virus, GVSU researcher finds

As the COVID-19 vaccination rollout continues and people contemplate if they are going to get the vaccine, research by a Grand Valley psychology expert has found the strongest predictor of whether someone will get vaccinated is how vulnerable they feel about contracting the virus.

That emotional response to the health threat outweighed other conventional predictors of people's attitudes toward vaccines, such as whether they had received a flu shot, said Amanda Dillard, associate professor of psychology. It also overrode more practical reasons for getting immunized, such as one's belief about the probability of getting the virus.

"Emotions can be more powerful than reason when deciding on whether to get a vaccine," said Dillard, who studies the roles of emotion and risk perception in motivating health behaviors.

A paper on the study results has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Public Health, Dillard said.

Dillard said she and her co-researchers surveyed 1,000 adults from across the nation to find the best predictors of people's attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. They asked participants about their intentions: How likely is it that you will get a COVID-19 vaccine when one is available to you?

The finding that the perceived feeling of vulnerability was the strongest predictor of getting a vaccine surprised her colleagues, though Dillard said she had seen indications of that phenomenon in a smaller-scale study she had conducted earlier with GVSU students.

That means empirical data such as the higher probability of contracting the virus or having complications may not sway someone in that category to get vaccinated if they don't feel vulnerable, Dillard said. In contrast, someone who is lower risk -- such as someone steadfastly isolating -- may still feel deeply vulnerable and eager to receive a vaccine.

Factors affecting that perception include political views, cultural influences and media habits, Dillard said. Also, the unpredictability and contagiousness of the virus along with information saturation can especially boost feelings of vulnerability, she added.

This information from the study is important because it can help health professionals and communicators understand people's motivations for getting a vaccine and craft messaging accordingly, Dillard said.

"Since vulnerability is emotional, a narrative about someone's else's experience may work better than a message that just presents facts about objective risk," Dillard said.