The West Michigan economy concluded 2024 on a marginally positive note, a trend expected to continue into 2025, according to data collected by a Grand Valley researcher.
Brian Long, director of supply management research at GVSU’s Seidman College of Business, said his data for most of 2024 reflected a slight downturn to the regional economy.
“As we closed out the year, I'm pleased to say that our statistics came in marginally positive,” Long said. “That's good news given that most of 2024 was marginally negative. We didn't call this a recession, we just called it a business slowdown, and going forward, 2025 looks quite positive.”
Long said one of his metrics was particularly encouraging — business confidence. Local purchasing managers and businesses are optimistic about their future, according to Long’s research.
“Our short-term business outlook, which asks firms about their perception of the economy over the next three to six months, posted at its strongest level in over eight months,” Long said. “Our long term business outlook index, which queries perceptions over the next three to five years, came in very close to our seven-year high.”
Even with the strong confidence of local firms, inflation has lingered into 2025 despite the Fed raising interest rates to aim for a “soft landing,” said Long.
“After three years of tighter interest rates, has the Fed finally accomplished its goal of a soft landing? Well, the simple answer to that is no,” Long said.
“If you go to the grocery store, you see that the price of groceries is up, but probably more importantly, housing prices are still up. Until those prices come down, we can't say that we've had a soft landing.”
Here’s a look at the key index results from December’s survey of West Michigan businesses:
- New orders index (business improvement): +4 vs. +6 in November
- Production index (output): +4 vs. +6 in November
- Employment index: +5 vs. -2 in November
- Lead times index: -3 vs. 0 in November
More information about the survey and an archive of past surveys are available on the Seidman College of Business website .
